September 6, 2009
CERNOBBIO, Italy (Reuters) -Nouriel Roubini, a leading economist who predicted the scale of global financial troubles, said a U-shaped recovery is possible, with leading economies undeperforming perhaps for 3 years.
He said there is also an increasing risk of a “double-dip” scenario, however.
“I believe that the basic scenario is going to be one of a U-shaped economic recovery where growth is going to remain below trend … especially for the advanced economies, for at least 2 or 3 years,” he said at a news conference here.
“Within that U scenario I also see a small probability, but a rising probability, that if we don’t get the exit strategy right we could end up with a relapse in growth … a double-dip recession,” he added.
Roubini, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said he was concerned economies which save a lot, such as China, Japan and Germany, might not boost consumption enough to compensate for any fall in demand from “overspenders” such as the United States and Britain.
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